Prominent writers, social thinkers, politicians and scientists have all shared with the world their visions of the future. Some of these individual predictions have been completely off the mark, some have been accurate. However, taken together, they paint a picture of changing perceptions about various aspects of the future in our society and provide insight into aspirations and beliefs of their authors. Also, sometimes such predictions appear realistic enough to warrant a closer look at them. Below is a comprehensive list of major future events, including technological inventions and scientific advances, that were repeatedly predicted by various authors, but that have not yet come into being. The list is centered not around the authors, but around specific events. In most cases alternative time estimates offered by other authors are provided. Since the futurist authors come from very different backgrounds (academic research, science fiction writing, politics, philosophy), the accuracy, realism and relevancy of their forecasts vary. The qualifications and bias of different authors are explained. ==The list of future events (structured by topic)== ''currently technological forecasts only'' ===Artificial intelligence and robotics=== *Emotional robots **2010 - Cynthia Breazeal, 2004 [http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.07/race.html] - many people have criticized MIT forecasts in robotics as overoptimistic *Robots capable of manual labour tasks **2009 - robots that perform searching and fetching tasks in unmodified library environment, Professor Angel del Pobil (University Jaume I, Spain), 2004 [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/3897583.stm] **2029 - robots performing most household tasks, Dr. Joanne Pransky, a robotics expert [http://www.membrana.ru/articles/global/2004/10/27/233300.html] **2030 - robots capable of performing at human level at most manual jobs Marshall Brain, 2003 [http://www.marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm] **2034 - robots (home automation systems) performing most household tasks, Helen Greiner, Chairman of iRobot [http://features.engadget.com/entry/8154940951659251/] *Robots beat human world champions in soccer **2050 - RoboCup mission statement, 1997 [http://www.robocup.org/] *AI reaches the human level **2019 - Ray Kurzweil, 1999 **2020 - Arthur C. Clarke, 2001 **2050 - Hans Moravec, 1999 [http://articles.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1511/is_10_20/ai_55926976] ===Biology=== *Artificial eyes **2007 - a 1Kpixel artificial retina with 1000_%28number%29 electrodes (Department of Energy, 2004) [http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2004-10/ddoe-dlu101404.php] *Use of animal organs for transplantation **2007 - first genetically modified pig with organs that aren't rejected by humans (South Korea's Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, 2004) **2010 - practical use of such animal donors in surgery (same source) *Rejuvenation of mammals **2014-2024 - (International Association of Biomedical Gerontology, 2004) - comprehensive functional rejuvenation of middle-aged mice [http://www.nickbostrom.com/fable/dragon.html#_ftn2] *Cloning of dinosaurs **2023 - (Arthur C. Clarke, 2001) *Reverse engineering of human brain **2025 - Ray Kurzweil, 2005 [http://www.asimovs.com/_issue_0506/thoughtexperiments.shtml] ===Communications=== *All communications are Internet Protocol-based **2008 - internal company plans (British Telecom, 2004) **2014 - Paul Mockapetris, inventor of the DNS system, 2004 [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/3832527.stm] ===Nanotechnology=== *Nanomachines used in fabrics and armor **2020 - nanomachines in soldier armor controlled by on-board computer can change the properties of fabric from flexible to bullet-proof, treat wounds and filter out chemical and biological weapons, nanomuscle fibers can provide an exoskeleton United States Army, estimates from ''The Vision 2020 Future Warrior'' project, 2004 *Universal replicator is developed **2040 - Arthur C. Clarke, 2001 ===Space=== *Space flights become available to the general public **2011 - Arthur C. Clarke, 2001 - originally Clarke expected it to happen by 2001 (described in 2001: A Space Odyssey) **Progress so far: First space tourist, Dennis Tito flew to space on June 5th, 2001. First privately-funded space flight occurred on June 21, 2004, when SpaceShipOne was piloted by Mike Melvill to the hight of 100 km. **See also: private spaceflight *Space hotel under construction **2006-2008 - plans of American motel tycoon Robert Bigelow, 2004 [http://www.thestatesman.net/page.news.php?clid=24&theme=&usrsess=1&id=45758] [http://www.lasvegasmercury.com/2004/MERC-Jul-08-Thu-2004/24250261.html] **2014 - Arthur C. Clarke, 2001 **2024 - "many thousands of people being able to afford" visiting orbital hotels, Burt Rutan, 2004 [http://www.thedesertsun.com/news/stories2004/local/20041220215558.shtml] *Space elevator **2020 - Brad Edwards (head of Institute for Scientific Research), 2004 [http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=624&u=/ap/20040625/ap_on_sc/space_elevator_3&printer=1] **Arthur C. Clarke once said that the space elevator "will be built about 10 years after everybody stops laughing". *Human landing on Mars **2021 - Arthur C. Clarke, 2001 **2030 - NASA observer predictions, 2004 *Asteroid mining **2024 - Peter Diamandis, founder of Ansari X Prize, 2004 [http://www.wired.com/news/space/0,2697,65729,00.html?tw=wn_1techhead]. *Near light-speed travel **2095 - Arthur C. Clarke, 2001: "''Space drive'', a propulsion system reacting against the structure of space time" ===Virtual Reality=== *Full immersion virtual reality using direct input to the brain becomes available **2025 - Arthur C. Clarke, 2001 ==See also== *21st_century#Predictions_for_the_21st_century_as_of_2003 *Famous predictions Futurology Timelines
== Removed section == ::I took out the below because it doesn't seem encyclopedic to me. Any thoughts? User:Secretcurse 16:56, 15 Jan 2005 (UTC) :User:John-1107 15 Jan 2005 (UTC):This section refers to what i will do in the future so this concerns everybody else too. So please User:Secretcurse i'm not insane! And stop interfering me as if y'all are not friendly and always misunderstand me so y'all will kick me out of Wikipedia. John, I really don't want to kick you off and I don't think you're insane, I just don't think your plans belong in the article. I plan to write a novel and a nonfiction book or three, that doesn't mean I can add myself to lists of American writers.User:Secretcurse 22:54, 16 Jan 2005 (UTC) ::==If User:John-1107 completes school and college (please note that all of the events are unexpectedly subject to change)...== ::===Artificial Intelligence, robotics, and Biology=== ::*2016-2050 - Create various half-human and half-AI and half-animal,half-human, and half-AI races and sentient nonhuman robots for household, business, and the military. ::===Space and Time Travel=== ::*2021 - Conduct experiments on time travel to find out if time travel can become a reality. ::-Upon Humankind's first landing on Mars, he will continue on in a spaceship that is used for diplomatic and secret military purposes with an ion engine to parts unknown to look for signs of civilized or other inhabited worlds. It doesn't matter if he returns with his secret mission completed or uncompleted.... ::===United Nationsworld government=== ::**2020s-2042 and beyond - He will began his rise to power with wars against enemies (including dictatorial nations and political terrorist groups) who would threaten the peace of Earth and the universe. With his rise to power complete, under the name of David Alexander Junius Caesar Augustus I (named after Gaius Julius Caesar and Augustus, founders of the Roman Empire, Alexander the Great, King of Asia,Egypt,Macedon, and the League of Corinth, Lucius Junius Brutus, founder of the Roman Republic and King David of the Kingdom of Israel) as member of the United Nations Secretariat and president of the United Nations General Assembly with the transformation of the United Nations from an international organization in a politically divided Earth to a Federal Imperial Democratic Republican world and interplanetary government in which all nations retain their pre-2042 existance, he will wage war and make compromises with the remaining various opposition groups and began a extensive campaign to crack down on crime in all forms. When he dies, he will leave a world no one could imagine. == Older Discussion== It should not be chronological, because we can't integrate forecasts from different authors. It should be probably split into several distinct fields, with entries in each field sorted according to complexity, closeness, not specific chronological estimates (still, it can be tried). However, each entry should be accompanies by different forecasted dates (by various authors). Only predictions and forecasts from acclaimed sources should be included, or at least that should be the goal. While the sequence of developments may be to some extent done by us, the predicted dates/periods should be taken from respected authors and organisations (it's not a problem if some of them conflict with each other).User:Paranoid 19:24, 2 Jun 2004 (UTC) Please leave your comments about this. Is it worth trying? I think it's a novel idea that expands encyclopedia into new previously off-limit areas in a potentially very interesting way. But what do others think? User:Paranoid 19:45, 2 Jun 2004 (UTC) :Interesting - how about some more guidance on how you see this working? A couple of examples? User:The Trolls of Navarone 19:47, 2 Jun 2004 (UTC) ::I added a placeholder in the article. Here is a more detailed explanation of what I first conceived. Wikipedia already covers past (history in various incarnations) and present (most of Wikipedia). It has also made some forays into the future, like Timeline of fictional future events or 2004#Predicted and scheduled events. I don't see a reason why an encyclopedia shouldn't cover something which hasn't happened yet. :) Of course, we need to stick to the well tested approach of Wikipedia - find sources, explain their viewpoints in a NPOV without introducing our own bias. This article might be a collection of things that are going to happen a bit later than 2004, together with estimates from various authors on when they will happen. ::Here are some examples. There are important scientific and technological milestones (targets) like general AI, base on Mars, household humanoid robotic servant, flying car, etc. Some of the most popular future events (such as these ones) were covered in detail by many forecasters and there is even a solid body of research work, including even market research. So we can present a collection of views on when will household humanoid robotic servant become common (of course, not all forecasts specify what they mean by "available", "common", etc.). There are also some economical, social and other events, like world government, depletion of oil reserves. Some of the first predictions were probably made centuries ago (that would give extra depth to the event coverage if we can add what, for example Aristotle said about something :] ). User:Paranoid 20:20, 2 Jun 2004 (UTC) ---- 21st_century#Predictions_for_the_21st_century_as_of_2003 contains a list of predictions for 21st century (most by either Hans Moravec or Ray Kurzeil). This can probably be taken and expanded into what I originally conceived. == Fictional predictions should be excluded here. == Just because someone mentions something in a work of fiction does not mean that they believe that this technology will be available on the date indicated in the book. It is both unfair to call authors to task when reality fails to line up with their fictional accounts - and also to credit them when some technology happens to arrive when it did in their fictional world. I suggest removing so-called predictions that are merely abstracted from a fictional work - and retain only those entries where some futurologist has concretely predicted some event as being likely in the real world on some specific date. :Which fictional predictions do you mean? User:Paranoid 10:07, 21 Mar 2005 (UTC)
See other meanings of words starting from letter:
Words begining with Timeline_of_the_future_in_forecasts:
Timeline_of_the_future_in_forecasts
Timeline_of_the_future_in_forecasts
Timeline of the future in forecasts
Prominent writers, social thinkers, politicians and scientists have all shared with the world their visions of the future. Some of these individual predictions have been completely off the mark, some have been accurate. However, taken together, they paint a picture of changing perceptions about various aspects of the future in our society and provide insight into aspirations and beliefs of their authors. Also, sometimes such predictions appear realistic enough to warrant a closer look at them. Below is a comprehensive list of major future events, including technological inventions and scientific advances, that were repeatedly predicted by various authors, but that have not yet come into being. The list is centered not around the authors, but around specific events. In most cases alternative time estimates offered by other authors are provided. Since the futurist authors come from very different backgrounds (academic research, science fiction writing, politics, philosophy), the accuracy, realism and relevancy of their forecasts vary. The qualifications and bias of different authors are explained. ==The list of future events (structured by topic)== ''currently technological forecasts only'' ===Artificial intelligence and robotics=== *Emotional robots **2010 - Cynthia Breazeal, 2004 [http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.07/race.html] - many people have criticized MIT forecasts in robotics as overoptimistic *Robots capable of manual labour tasks **2009 - robots that perform searching and fetching tasks in unmodified library environment, Professor Angel del Pobil (University Jaume I, Spain), 2004 [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/3897583.stm] **2029 - robots performing most household tasks, Dr. Joanne Pransky, a robotics expert [http://www.membrana.ru/articles/global/2004/10/27/233300.html] **2030 - robots capable of performing at human level at most manual jobs Marshall Brain, 2003 [http://www.marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm] **2034 - robots (home automation systems) performing most household tasks, Helen Greiner, Chairman of iRobot [http://features.engadget.com/entry/8154940951659251/] *Robots beat human world champions in soccer **2050 - RoboCup mission statement, 1997 [http://www.robocup.org/] *AI reaches the human level **2019 - Ray Kurzweil, 1999 **2020 - Arthur C. Clarke, 2001 **2050 - Hans Moravec, 1999 [http://articles.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1511/is_10_20/ai_55926976] ===Biology=== *Artificial eyes **2007 - a 1Kpixel artificial retina with 1000_%28number%29 electrodes (Department of Energy, 2004) [http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2004-10/ddoe-dlu101404.php] *Use of animal organs for transplantation **2007 - first genetically modified pig with organs that aren't rejected by humans (South Korea's Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, 2004) **2010 - practical use of such animal donors in surgery (same source) *Rejuvenation of mammals **2014-2024 - (International Association of Biomedical Gerontology, 2004) - comprehensive functional rejuvenation of middle-aged mice [http://www.nickbostrom.com/fable/dragon.html#_ftn2] *Cloning of dinosaurs **2023 - (Arthur C. Clarke, 2001) *Reverse engineering of human brain **2025 - Ray Kurzweil, 2005 [http://www.asimovs.com/_issue_0506/thoughtexperiments.shtml] ===Communications=== *All communications are Internet Protocol-based **2008 - internal company plans (British Telecom, 2004) **2014 - Paul Mockapetris, inventor of the DNS system, 2004 [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/3832527.stm] ===Nanotechnology=== *Nanomachines used in fabrics and armor **2020 - nanomachines in soldier armor controlled by on-board computer can change the properties of fabric from flexible to bullet-proof, treat wounds and filter out chemical and biological weapons, nanomuscle fibers can provide an exoskeleton United States Army, estimates from ''The Vision 2020 Future Warrior'' project, 2004 *Universal replicator is developed **2040 - Arthur C. Clarke, 2001 ===Space=== *Space flights become available to the general public **2011 - Arthur C. Clarke, 2001 - originally Clarke expected it to happen by 2001 (described in 2001: A Space Odyssey) **Progress so far: First space tourist, Dennis Tito flew to space on June 5th, 2001. First privately-funded space flight occurred on June 21, 2004, when SpaceShipOne was piloted by Mike Melvill to the hight of 100 km. **See also: private spaceflight *Space hotel under construction **2006-2008 - plans of American motel tycoon Robert Bigelow, 2004 [http://www.thestatesman.net/page.news.php?clid=24&theme=&usrsess=1&id=45758] [http://www.lasvegasmercury.com/2004/MERC-Jul-08-Thu-2004/24250261.html] **2014 - Arthur C. Clarke, 2001 **2024 - "many thousands of people being able to afford" visiting orbital hotels, Burt Rutan, 2004 [http://www.thedesertsun.com/news/stories2004/local/20041220215558.shtml] *Space elevator **2020 - Brad Edwards (head of Institute for Scientific Research), 2004 [http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=624&u=/ap/20040625/ap_on_sc/space_elevator_3&printer=1] **Arthur C. Clarke once said that the space elevator "will be built about 10 years after everybody stops laughing". *Human landing on Mars **2021 - Arthur C. Clarke, 2001 **2030 - NASA observer predictions, 2004 *Asteroid mining **2024 - Peter Diamandis, founder of Ansari X Prize, 2004 [http://www.wired.com/news/space/0,2697,65729,00.html?tw=wn_1techhead]. *Near light-speed travel **2095 - Arthur C. Clarke, 2001: "''Space drive'', a propulsion system reacting against the structure of space time" ===Virtual Reality=== *Full immersion virtual reality using direct input to the brain becomes available **2025 - Arthur C. Clarke, 2001 ==See also== *21st_century#Predictions_for_the_21st_century_as_of_2003 *Famous predictions Futurology Timelines
Timeline of the future in forecasts
== Removed section == ::I took out the below because it doesn't seem encyclopedic to me. Any thoughts? User:Secretcurse 16:56, 15 Jan 2005 (UTC) :User:John-1107 15 Jan 2005 (UTC):This section refers to what i will do in the future so this concerns everybody else too. So please User:Secretcurse i'm not insane! And stop interfering me as if y'all are not friendly and always misunderstand me so y'all will kick me out of Wikipedia. John, I really don't want to kick you off and I don't think you're insane, I just don't think your plans belong in the article. I plan to write a novel and a nonfiction book or three, that doesn't mean I can add myself to lists of American writers.User:Secretcurse 22:54, 16 Jan 2005 (UTC) ::==If User:John-1107 completes school and college (please note that all of the events are unexpectedly subject to change)...== ::===Artificial Intelligence, robotics, and Biology=== ::*2016-2050 - Create various half-human and half-AI and half-animal,half-human, and half-AI races and sentient nonhuman robots for household, business, and the military. ::===Space and Time Travel=== ::*2021 - Conduct experiments on time travel to find out if time travel can become a reality. ::-Upon Humankind's first landing on Mars, he will continue on in a spaceship that is used for diplomatic and secret military purposes with an ion engine to parts unknown to look for signs of civilized or other inhabited worlds. It doesn't matter if he returns with his secret mission completed or uncompleted.... ::===United Nationsworld government=== ::**2020s-2042 and beyond - He will began his rise to power with wars against enemies (including dictatorial nations and political terrorist groups) who would threaten the peace of Earth and the universe. With his rise to power complete, under the name of David Alexander Junius Caesar Augustus I (named after Gaius Julius Caesar and Augustus, founders of the Roman Empire, Alexander the Great, King of Asia,Egypt,Macedon, and the League of Corinth, Lucius Junius Brutus, founder of the Roman Republic and King David of the Kingdom of Israel) as member of the United Nations Secretariat and president of the United Nations General Assembly with the transformation of the United Nations from an international organization in a politically divided Earth to a Federal Imperial Democratic Republican world and interplanetary government in which all nations retain their pre-2042 existance, he will wage war and make compromises with the remaining various opposition groups and began a extensive campaign to crack down on crime in all forms. When he dies, he will leave a world no one could imagine. == Older Discussion== It should not be chronological, because we can't integrate forecasts from different authors. It should be probably split into several distinct fields, with entries in each field sorted according to complexity, closeness, not specific chronological estimates (still, it can be tried). However, each entry should be accompanies by different forecasted dates (by various authors). Only predictions and forecasts from acclaimed sources should be included, or at least that should be the goal. While the sequence of developments may be to some extent done by us, the predicted dates/periods should be taken from respected authors and organisations (it's not a problem if some of them conflict with each other).User:Paranoid 19:24, 2 Jun 2004 (UTC) Please leave your comments about this. Is it worth trying? I think it's a novel idea that expands encyclopedia into new previously off-limit areas in a potentially very interesting way. But what do others think? User:Paranoid 19:45, 2 Jun 2004 (UTC) :Interesting - how about some more guidance on how you see this working? A couple of examples? User:The Trolls of Navarone 19:47, 2 Jun 2004 (UTC) ::I added a placeholder in the article. Here is a more detailed explanation of what I first conceived. Wikipedia already covers past (history in various incarnations) and present (most of Wikipedia). It has also made some forays into the future, like Timeline of fictional future events or 2004#Predicted and scheduled events. I don't see a reason why an encyclopedia shouldn't cover something which hasn't happened yet. :) Of course, we need to stick to the well tested approach of Wikipedia - find sources, explain their viewpoints in a NPOV without introducing our own bias. This article might be a collection of things that are going to happen a bit later than 2004, together with estimates from various authors on when they will happen. ::Here are some examples. There are important scientific and technological milestones (targets) like general AI, base on Mars, household humanoid robotic servant, flying car, etc. Some of the most popular future events (such as these ones) were covered in detail by many forecasters and there is even a solid body of research work, including even market research. So we can present a collection of views on when will household humanoid robotic servant become common (of course, not all forecasts specify what they mean by "available", "common", etc.). There are also some economical, social and other events, like world government, depletion of oil reserves. Some of the first predictions were probably made centuries ago (that would give extra depth to the event coverage if we can add what, for example Aristotle said about something :] ). User:Paranoid 20:20, 2 Jun 2004 (UTC) ---- 21st_century#Predictions_for_the_21st_century_as_of_2003 contains a list of predictions for 21st century (most by either Hans Moravec or Ray Kurzeil). This can probably be taken and expanded into what I originally conceived. == Fictional predictions should be excluded here. == Just because someone mentions something in a work of fiction does not mean that they believe that this technology will be available on the date indicated in the book. It is both unfair to call authors to task when reality fails to line up with their fictional accounts - and also to credit them when some technology happens to arrive when it did in their fictional world. I suggest removing so-called predictions that are merely abstracted from a fictional work - and retain only those entries where some futurologist has concretely predicted some event as being likely in the real world on some specific date. :Which fictional predictions do you mean? User:Paranoid 10:07, 21 Mar 2005 (UTC)
See other meanings of words starting from letter:
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TA | TB | TC | TD | TE | TF | TG | TH | TI | TJ | TK | TL | TŁ | TM | TN | TO | TP | TR | TS | TU | TW | TX | TY | TZ |Words begining with Timeline_of_the_future_in_forecasts:
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